The USD Index (DXY) is showing some of its recent gains against the greenback versus a basket of its major competitors. The DXY is reported to have returned to the mid-104.00s since Thursday.
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USD Index looks to ECB meeting data
The index traded on the defensive and fell below 105.00 after two consecutive daily gains amid reduced risk aversion and a slight recovery in US yields across the curve. Meanwhile, investor concerns about the banking system appear to have eased after Credit Suisse announced it would lend CHF50 billion from the SNB, although caution remains in place ahead of the ECB’s key interest rate hike decision later in the day. In the US data space, weekly initial claims are usually supported by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits.
The USD index is under pressure after hitting a fresh peak above 105.00 on Wednesday. Risk aversion stemming from banking concerns appears to have eased somewhat and is supporting some selling pressure in the dollar amid stronger investor confidence in a 25 bps rate hike by the Fed at its March 22 meeting. So far, the index is under pressure amid revived bets on a near-term Fed centrality. However, persistently high inflation data and the resilience of the US economy continue to challenge this view. Currently, the USD index is down 0.24% around 104.48 and a break above 103.48 (monthly low on March 13) would open the door to a move to 102.58 (weekly low on February 14) and eventually to 100.82 (February 2, 2023 low). On the other hand, the next hurdle would emerge at 105.88 (high on Mar. 8, 2023) followed by the 200-day SMA at 106.64, then at 107.19 (weekly high on Nov. 30, 2022).
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