Rupiah Exchange Rate Today Strengthens at 14,700 Due to Varied GDP Data

Today's Rupiah exchange rate has shown figures that support Indonesia's optimistic economic growth, by decreasing to 14,680 on Friday morning. In this case, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) currency also benefits from the broad weakening of the US Dollar and the atmosphere of cautious optimism in the Asia-Pacific region. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, Indonesia's GDP rose by 5.03% YoY, exceeding expectations of 4.95% and the previous figure of 5.01%. However, the quarterly figure also increased to -0.92% QoQ from the estimate of -1.0% and the previous figure of 0.36%. According to Reuters after the release of the data, Indonesia's post-pandemic economic recovery has been helped by rising commodity exports, although analysts expect slowing growth due to falling commodity prices and tightening monetary policies worldwide that suppress global demand. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined to 101.30, fading a corrective recovery from a one-week low hit the previous day, as markets remain confident in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance after recent mixed US data and Fed meeting. The preliminary readings for the US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 were mixed. The NFP Productivity dropped to -2.7% in Q1 from 1.6% previous and below the market estimate of -1.8%. Meanwhile, the Unit Labor Costs jumped to 6.3% compared to 5.5% expected and 3.3% previous. Furthermore, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance increased to $-64.2 billion from $-70.6 billion previous and above the market estimate of $-63.3 billion. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims edged higher to 242K for the week ended April 28, versus the 240K estimate and the previous reading of 229K. Elsewhere, concerns about the US banking sector’s woes combined with default fears to challenge market sentiment. However, recent actions from US policymakers and comments suggesting that there is no fear of a banking crisis appear to be exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar. Concerns about the US banking sector’s woes combined with default fears to threaten market sentiment. However, recent actions from US policymakers and comments suggesting that there is no fear of a banking crisis appear to be exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar. On the other hand, while poor Chinese data should weigh on USD/IDR prices, there is still cautious optimism. China’s Caixin Services PMI for April fell to 56.4 versus the 56.5 estimate and 57.8 previous. Earlier this week, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April fell to 49.5 versus the estimate of 50.3 and the previous 50.0. Meanwhile, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI also surprised the Chinese market with a negative reading before the long holiday that began on Thursday. Although Wall Street’s major stock indexes closed in the red, the S&P 500 Futures posted a mild gain. On the other hand, US Treasury yields ended negative in the North American session on Thursday, but the absence of Japanese traders limited the movement in the bond market in Asia. For the USD/IDR currency pair, it is likely to experience sluggish movement ahead of the release of the key US employment data for April. However, the chances of a rebound in this currency pair are high as the forecast shows less positive data from the headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), expected to be only 179K compared to 236K in the previous month. Based on technical analysis from fxstreet, the downward sloping support line formed since late January is located around 14,590 and can still offer a corrective bounce to the USD/IDR pair, especially since the RSI condition is almost oversold.

Register Here To Get Maximum Trading Profit, Make It A Profit Opportunity!