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Today's forex news depicts a risk profile that eclipses the cautious optimism at the start of the week as hawkish expectations from major central banks combine with recession and geopolitical concerns.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since early November 2022 around 3.86%. In the same row, the S%P 500 fell the slowest around 0.40% intraday.
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With the yields surging higher, it is a welcome return to full swing amidst hawkish expectations from the US Fed which in turn supports the recovery in the US dollar. On the other hand, China and the US are engaged in an exchange of accusations over shooting down balloons, while Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with the US have been a sham for Beijing. On the same lines, the UN was shocked by Japan’s news of North Korea’s missile test and the same weighed on sentiments, supporting the US dollar. Elsewhere, a cautious mood ahead of the preliminary readings of the S&P global PMIs for February will be crucial for market participants as the recent US data has been very mixed. Also crucial will be the Fed talks for a clear direction. Of all, the Fed Minutes due on Wednesday will be the most important for market participants to follow as the US monetary policymakers seem less united on raising interest rates, and the same could weigh on the US dollar if confirmed by the Fed statement. Apart from the above, the Canadian inflation figures and the Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting will also be important for traders. The reasons can be attributed to the BoC’s hints to pause rate hikes, and New Zealand’s geopolitical crisis that challenges CAD buyers but also boosts inflation in the country and supports the hawkish RBNZ.
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