Jakarta, GIC Trade – Gold prices remained stable above $1,950 per ounce on Monday and are on track to rise about 2% this month, supported by growing expectations that major central banks may be nearing the end of their current monetary tightening cycle amid easing inflationary pressures.
 
In the United States (US), data released on Friday showed that the annual core PCE price index rose 4.1% in June, the lowest since September 2021 and below market expectations of 4.2%. Last week, the Fed implemented a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate hike, which analysts believe could be the last increase in the current tightening cycle.
 
Meanwhile, two officials from the European Central Bank also signaled a possible end to rate hikes due to deteriorating economic prospects in the region. The Bank of Japan relaxed its grip on interest rates, allowing the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to rise above 0.5%.
 
Nevertheless, the US dollar index remains on a bullish trajectory as a tight labor market supports further rate hikes from the Fed. The US manufacturing sector has been experiencing contraction for nine consecutive months amid an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.
 
Fundamentally, the anticipated end of the rate tightening cycle supports safe-haven assets like bullion or gold, which do not yield interest, leading to upward price movements. Now, let's look at the technical analysis:
 
Analisis Teknikal

Gold prices on the 1-hour chart attempted to move higher, reaching resistance at 1961.30 and approaching the next resistance level at 1971.40. However, the bias remains bearish, supported by sell signals indicated by the red arrows. Alternatively, if gold prices can break through the support level of 1953.30, then prices may head towards the next support level at 1943.20.
 
This Forex and commodity trading analysis is based on the author's fundamental and technical perspectives and does not constitute advice or a recommendation.